The Giro d’Italia heads into the mountains this weekend, with a Dolomite double-header that takes in most of the region’s classic climbs in a road stage on Saturday, as well as a mountain time trial on Sunday.
The Dolomites is a pocket of the Alps that has long been associated with cycling, exemplified by the statue of Fausto Coppi that stands at the top of Passo Pordoi – the first climb on stage 14, standing at 2,239m. Their distinctive, foreboding limestone faces can always be counted on for a dramatic backdrop to the drama played out on the roads between them, and for this reason they have become a near-annual presence on the Giro route.
The race enters the Dolomites after a stage in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region in the far north east of the country, a land of alpine foothills where Team Sky's Mikel Nieve triumphed on stage 13 and where Andrey Amador pulled on the Maglia Rosa. Ahead of it now lies a decisive weekend in the story of the 2016 Giro.
Stage 14 starts in Alpago, a town at just 385m above sea level. From there it’s a long, gradual ascent to the Passo Pordoi, whose summit comes after almost 95km of racing and at 2,239m. The Passo Sella and Passo Gardena then follow in quick succession – their alternate names of Sellajoch and Grodnerjoch belying their vicinity to the near-Austrian South Tyrol region.
After an 11km descent comes the Passo Compolongo, before undulating roads lead up to the base of Passo Giau at the 159km mark. The Giau, at 10km long and over 9% average, with initial ramps of up to 14%, is one of the toughest tests in this year’s race, and has a spectacular panorama at the top to accompany it too.
The category two climb Passo Valparola finishes the day’s climbing, but despite its relative ease compared to the Giau, the bunch will have diminished dramatically by this stage, and it’s where the winning attacks will likely be finalised. From the top it’s a 15km descent, before a nasty 1km climb, with 19% ramps, on the run in to the finish at Alta Badia.
If we’re lucky and the break is allowed enough time, we’ll get two races out on the road – for the stage win, and for the overall classement. Riders like Stefano Pirazzi, Alessandro De Marchi, Simon Clarke, Damiano Cunego and Nico Roche have all been known to take advantage of long breakaways in the mountains, so watch out for these names in the break. It's a good day for anybody in the hunt for the mountains jersey to get up the road too, so perhaps Gio Visconti and Stefan Denifl will again be visible.
The battle for GC will take place behind the breakaway, if not at the head of the race, and we can expect the usual suspects to light things up: Nibali, Valverde, Kruijswijk, Uran, Zakarin, Majka, Chaves. The new leader, Andrey Amador, confessed he is not a true climber, so to see if he can hold is own in the mountains proper will be intriguing. The gap back to 3rd place Nibali is 41 seconds, with Jungels slotting between them at 26 seconds, but the young Luxembourger will have a difficult task maintaining his place in the ranking.
Stage 15 is an altogether more straightforward and shorter affair, but also being a 10km mountain time trial, that doesn’t mean it’s going to be any more pleasant for the riders.
They'll set out from Castelrotto and embark on 4km of gradual climbing around the base of Mount Puflatsch, before a further 8km of climbing proper up to Alpe di Siusi, on slopes that average 8.4% and max out at 11%.
The mountain time trial is a rarity in most races, but has nonetheless become a regular fixture for the Giro d’Italia. Nibali won an uphill time trial to Polsa en route to his overall win in 2013, before Nairo Quintana did the same thing in 2014 on the Monte Grappa.
Nibali will no doubt be hoping for a repeat of his 2013 endeavours this year, but the 58 second gap he enjoyed over second place back then is seemingly less likely to be repeated with the GC contenders being so closely matched.
If there is little hiding in a regular time trial, then there is practically none in an entirely uphill version, and its because of this that the GC contenders and pure climbers can generally be expected to fill the top places on the stage. As well as Nibali, there’s Valverde, Kruijswijk, Zakarin and Chaves, as well as the clearly in-form Nieve, that could potentially pull through for a stage win.
Rigoberto Uran is a perennial performer in mountain time trials, as is Rafal Majka, but neither have threatened the top spot in previous attempts. Domenico Pozzovivo, despite is miniscule size, is another who is there or thereabouts but never on top. Andrey Amador, despite his good performances so far, is an unknown quantity in the mountain TT - his last one being the 2010 Giro, in which he came 151st.
Parcours, possible winners and general speculative conversation aside though, the weekend will definitely play host to some important racing, but just how much of a GC shakeup will result remains to be seen.